Governor's race tightGovernor’s race tight Click here to find out more! September 24, 2006 Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley is maintaining his lead over Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in the race for Maryland governor, a new poll for The Sun shows, having countered a barrage of critical commercials expected to intensify over the six weeks until Election Day. Still, Ehrlich, a Republican seeking re-election, remains a popular figure in a state where Democrats outnumber the GOP by about 2-to-1. Voters give Ehrlich and O’Malley – both 40-something telegenic politicians – about equal marks on leadership and ability to move the state forward, suggesting that the contest could wind up very close. O’Malley, a Democrat, has a 6-percentage-point lead among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, about the same margin he held over the Republican incumbent in July. But it is a much smaller advantage than the double-digit leads he held last year before Ehrlich began campaigning in earnest. “This campaign should be neck-and-neck in November,” said Keith Haller, the president of Potomac Inc., which conducted the Sun poll. The statewide survey of 815 likely voters was conducted Sept. 15 through Sept. 18, and has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points. The survey reveals underlying trends and perceptions that offer signs of encouragement for both campaigns. Four years ago, Democrats lost the governorship for the first time in 36 years, when Ehrlich defeated former Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. But voters say they have more confidence in Democrats to handle state problems than they did when Ehrlich took office – a positive sign for O’Malley. In a Sun survey in January 2003, state voters said Republicans were better able than Democrat to handle state issues by 41 percent to 39 percent. But since then, support for Ehrlich’s party has steadily slipped, and support for O’Malley’s has steadily gained. Now 49 percent of voters think Democrats are well-equipped to handle problems, compared with 35 percent for Republicans, a 16-point swing in four years. Richard Crane, a 57-year-old O’Malley supporter from Essex, said he sees the mayor trying to tackle the problems important to the middle class, and calls Ehrlich fixated about legalizing slot machines. “Yeah, there are some retirees who take their quarters once a month and go to Dover Downs, but how much money is going out of state because people are moving because of high taxes, crime and poor schools?” said Crane, who voted for Townsend in 2002. “Those are the problems that Ehrlich should be addressing, and he’s not, and those are the problems that I see O’Malley addressing.” But despite the surge for Democrats, the poll shows that Ehrlich remains largely untouched by the problems his party faces. The Bush effect Although President Bush has seen some improvement in his standing nationally, he remains profoundly unpopular in Maryland, with 34 percent of voters approving of his performance and 59 percent disapproving. That hasn’t rubbed off on Ehrlich, despite O’Malley’s nearly constant attempts to link the governor with the president. Ehrlich’s job approval rating isn’t as good as it was early in his term, and it has slipped by 6 points since July, largely because of an erosion of support among Democrats. But now, as throughout his entire term, a majority of voters – 51 percent – think Ehrlich is doing a good job. The poll found that 38 percent disapprove. Allan Hess, a 58-year-old Democrat from Cockeysville, said he disapproves of Bush because of the Iraq war but said that has nothing to do with Ehrlich. Hess, who works at the Johns Hopkins medical campus in East Baltimore, said he’s not impressed with O’Malley’s performance in the city, especially on crime and schools, and thinks Ehrlich is a more solid leader. “He’s a really good speaker, and he’s addressed some of the issues, maybe not to my full liking, but at least there’s a plan there that’s solid,” said Hess, who voted for Ehrlich in 2002. “Martin O’Malley has a plan to do this and this, but how are you going to pay for it? It reminds me of the Richard Nixon-era ‘I have a plan to get out of Vietnam’ but no specifics.” O’Malley has the solid support of his party’s base. Liberals back him overwhelmingly – 81 percent to 11 percent – and Democrats back him by a 70 percent to 19 percent margin. Moderate support But he also retains a 15 percentage point lead among moderate voters, the sort who abandoned the Democratic Party to support Ehrlich in 2002. Another positive sign for the mayor is that he holds a 17 percentage point lead among frequent voters, the ones most likely to come to the polls if turnout is low, as it was in this month’s primary. Lester Sussman, 80, a poll respondent from Mount Washington, said he voted for Ehrlich in 2002 but plans to vote for O’Malley this year. “He had an unenviable task in the city,” Sussman said. “I don’t think anyone could overcome something like that.” “It’s more that I dislike Ehrlich. ... I don’t like the way he stuffed the [Public Service Commission,]” Sussman said, referring to discontent over how the governor’s appointees handled this year’s BGE rate increase. Ehrlich has solid support from his base, too. Even after pitching himself as a centrist and emphasizing in his campaign moderate- and liberal-friendly policies such as support for stem cell research and tighter air pollution rules, the governor retains the strong support of Republicans and conservatives. Likely voters who identify themselves as conservatives back Ehrlich 73 percent to 19 percent, and Republicans support him by an 81 percent to 12 percent spread. Timothy Lang, 49, a construction company owner from Glen Burnie, rates Ehrlich’s job performance as “not perfect, but not bad.” The conservative Republican said deciding to vote for the governor is a no-brainer. “He’s a Republican, a conservative,” Lang said, whereas O’Malley “toots a horn that don’t deserve to be tooted.” The gubernatorial match-up results stand in contrast to the increasing confidence Ehrlich and his aides have displayed in recent days. They have repeatedly insisted that the governor is now leading in his internal polls and have even claimed that O’Malley’s private surveys show the same thing. The mayor’s campaign has said that’s not true. Echoes of 2002 “What you feel is actually happening,” Ehrlich told the crowd that surrounded him at the Frederick County Fair last week. “We have the opportunity to win this race not close. We have the opportunity to have this race called at 8:01 p.m. on election night. That’s where all the trend lines are going.” But the Sun poll shows signs that this race is not unfolding for Ehrlich as the last one did. In 2002, Ehrlich was a relatively unknown congressman whose candidacy caught fire as doubts about Townsend began to take root. Within a few months, Ehrlich had erased a 27-percentage point deficit and brought the race to a dead heat by this point in the election cycle. Closing the gap In part, that’s because his base in the Baltimore suburbs, the crucial swing area in the 2002 race, isn’t as strong as it was then. His approval ratings show he remains popular in the suburbs, but so far that isn’t translating into the kind of advantage over O’Malley he enjoyed over Townsend. Rep. C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger, the former Baltimore County executive and a strong O’Malley supporter, said before the poll was taken that the one key indicator of this race is how the candidates are doing in Baltimore County, Ehrlich’s home jurisdiction, where he won almost his entire margin of victory in 2002. Last time, Ruppersberger said, Ehrlich won the county by more than 20 percentage points. If he wins by only 10 this time, Ruppersberger said, he will lose the race. Ehrlich said at a recent campaign stop that his goal for the county is 60 percent – “The first lady says 65,” he joked. But the Sun poll shows he’s now leading there by just 5 percentage points, 46 percent to 41 percent. At this point in 2002, the Sun poll found he was leading in the county 58 percent to 31 percent. The new poll shows Ehrlich and O’Malley are in a statistical tie in the Baltimore region, which includes Baltimore, Anne Arundel, Howard, Carroll and Harford counties – as well as the city. Apart from Baltimore City, Ehrlich carried each of those jurisdictions by wide margins in 2002. Voters gave a strong indication of how close the election could be when presented with a series of head-to-head comparisons about the skills and ideas Ehrlich and O’Malley bring to the race. On every one, the two were within a few points of each other or in a tie. Leadership Voters usually give Democrats higher marks on education, but this figure suggests that questions about the city school system, which have been a centerpiece of the Ehrlich campaign, give the Republican an unusual opening on the issue. However, the numbers also show that the governor’s focus on city schools in speeches and television ads in the last two months has done little to sway voters’ perceptions; in July, O’Malley led in this measure by 5 points. The mayor has a slight lead on the question of which candidate is more innovative or has better ideas, 44 percent to 39 percent, and on which candidate shares the voter’s values, 43 percent to 39 percent. On the question of which one is better able to move the state forward – which both campaigns have spent their time trying to answer for voters – they are essentially tied: O’Malley 44, Ehrlich 43. James Elliot, 84, a retiree from Lutherville who voted for Ehrlich in 2002, said his decision this year is going to be a tough call. “I think he’s a good man,” Elliot said of O’Malley. And what about Ehrlich? “I think he’s a pretty good man, too,” Elliot said. andy.green@baltsun.com For a podcast and past poll stories, go to www.baltimoresun.com/sunpoll Copyright © 2006, The Baltimore Sun |
