Ehrlich loses ground in county

By DAVID ABRAMS, Staff Writer

Democrat Martin O’Malley is showing significant gains in a county that helped catapult Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. into office four years ago, according to a Capital-Gazette Newspapers poll.

A survey of likely voters in Anne Arundel County conducted last weekend shows Mr. Ehrlich with 48 percent of the vote, compared with Mr. O’Malley’s 36 percent and 13 percent undecided.

Four years ago, Mr. Ehrlich won the county by 30 points.

Steve Raabe of OpinionWorks, the Annapolis-based firm that conducted the poll, said the results indicate “trouble” for the governor statewide with waning support in a “bedrock” jurisdiction.

“Bob Ehrlich is a creature of the Baltimore media market,” Mr. Raabe said. “He has run strongly among the suburban white Reagan-Democrat voters. O’Malley is doing very well in that category.”

The poll was conducted from Oct. 12-16, and randomly surveyed 462 likely voters by telephone. The margin of error was of plus or minus 4.6 percent.

Some voters indicated that the issues in this race are similar to four years ago, when Mr. Ehrlich became the first Republican Maryland governor in a generation. Now, he has a four-year record to defend and an opponent that some conservative Democrats in places like Anne Arundel County can accept.

“I think it’s some of the common-people issues, like minimum wage, the electricity bills, some of these basic survival of life issues,” said Gerardine Weiss, 50, a Democrat from Severna Park who voted for Mr. Ehrlich in 2002. “Maybe if he had gotten slots through, that would’ve saved him. But he didn’t get that through either.”

Sean Phenicie, 37, of Millersville, said Mr. Ehrlich could accomplish a lot more without so much flak from Democrats.

“I think the Republicans are receiving a big wrong deal, the short end of the stick when it comes to politics in Maryland,” said the registered Republican who is probably going to vote for Democrat George F. Johnson IV for county executive.

Statewide polls have shown a lead for Mr. O’Malley. A recent Zogby Interactive poll put Mr. O’Malley ahead of Mr. Ehrlich 52 percent to 41 percent.

The political picture nationally appears to be making an impact on the governor’s race locally. Some voters who said they would vote for Mr. O’Malley talked a lot about “George Bush Jr.,” and their dissatisfaction over the war and spending.

“Frankly, if George Bush would have been CEO of any company, he would have been fired by the board of directors,” said Gerald Gebhart of Riva, 70, an independent who recently dropped his affiliation with the Republican Party. “In politics, the board is the taxpayers.”

Party registration greatly favors Democrats in the state.

They outnumber Republicans 3.1 million to 902,000, according to the state Board of Elections. Mr. Ehrlich will depend on independents and moderate Democrats to win. There are 433,000 independents statewide.

In Anne Arundel County, where he won 65 percent of the vote in 2002, Mr. Ehrlich leads among independents 46 percent to 36 percent. Mr. Ehrlich also benefits from more people crossing party lines.

Twenty-one percent of Democrats said they would vote for Mr. Ehrlich, while only 9 percent of Republicans said they would vote for Mr. O’Malley.

Shareese N. DeLeaver, a spokesman for the Ehrlich campaign, said the Anne Arundel numbers will improve from the 12-point lead the poll showed.

“These numbers belie the momentum that has been building these past months in Anne Arundel County,” she said. “We are confident that Governor Ehrlich’s solid record of accomplishment in Anne Arundel County will translate into votes on Election Day.”

Mr. Ehrlich’s campaign has focused on problems with crime and education in Baltimore, where Mr. O’Malley has been mayor for eight years.

Hari Sevugan, a spokesman for the O’Malley campaign, said the poll shows that voters are upset with higher electricity rates, higher college tuition rates and $3 billion more in taxes and fees.

“Bob Ehrlich realizes he can’t win these numbers, which is why he has taken to desperate attack ads and other last minute dirty tricks,” Mr. Sevugan said.

The poll showed a slight disaffection with incumbents.

While 61 percent said incumbency was not a factor, 23 percent said they would vote current office holders out.

Partisanship appears to be a little higher among Democrats this year than Republicans.

Seventeen percent of Democrats said they would only vote for candidates from their party, while 12 percent of Republicans said they would vote strictly along party lines.

“Democrats are going back home in bigger numbers than usual,” Mr. Raabe said. “There’s a sense people will vote more partisan this year.”

Of course, there are still a number of voters out there who haven’t started paying attention yet.

“I probably won’t know until the day I actually go and do my ballot,” said Todd Stephens, a registered Republican from Linthicum. He’s turned off by negative ads by the governor, and wants to hear more about what the candidates stand for.

“It’s more like mudslinging,” he said.

Lisa England, a Democrat from Millersville, said she will start studying the candidates soon.

“I honestly haven’t read over the information on either one yet, so I can’t make a decision until I know about them,” she said.

Both sides will likely target suburban Baltimore conservative Democrats, Mr. Raabe said. Mr. Ehrlich will continue to pound away at the Baltimore schools and crime issue to scare those Democrats away from their party’s candidate.

Mr. O’Malley, on the other hand, will try to hold on to those Democrats by stressing progress in the city and bringing in party luminaries like Bill Clinton, who was stumping in the state this week.

“The key for both candidates are those north county voters, and their counterparts up in Baltimore county,” Mr. Raabe said. “That’s where this race could be won and lost.”

Published October 22, 2006, The Capital, Annapolis, Md

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